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While post Maduro Venezuela has seen significant transformation of her international orientation her domestic political trajectory remains uncertain. Nicholas Maduro era left Venezuela devastated economically. Despite having world’s largest proven oil reserves its oil industry had become a wreck. The production capacity was decimated by sanctions, mismanagement, corruption and deteriorating infrastructure. Maduro’s biggest strategic failure was to leave Venezuela so economically vulnerable that it could come under undue foreign influence.
The US capture of Maduro has led to a fundamental strategic reversal resulting in US gaining enormous leverage over Venezuelan economy. Venezuela has oil. But the United States control the ecosystem that governs the monetisation of that oil. The US has taken control of Venezuelan oil revenues held in US treasury accounts. Washington determines where Venezuelan oil gets sold, who receives payments, who can invest and where thus controlling the financial aspects of the oil economy. So while Venezuela has resource sovereignty the US enjoys financial sovereignty. That distinction is crucial.
However this is not to say that Venezuela and its people have no say in the future of their country. The Delcy Rodrigues government continues to engage different countries like India,China,Russia and even Israel in order to diversify Venezuela’s partnerships and to maintain a degree of strategic autonomy. Most Venezuelans including those that were suspicious of the US did approve of US action and welcomed the removal of Maduro. But anti Maduro sentiment does not necessarily translate into pro Americanism. The larger question is whether Venezuelans approve of trading political control for prosperity?
If oil production continues to rise,unemployment declines,inflation falls,wages rise,healthcare and education becomes easily accessible then American influence can become tolerable. If however change in government does not change the fortunes of ordinary Venezuelans then the US risks facing rise of Venezuelan nationalism and that could complicate the relationship between Washington and Carcass again.
Fall of Maduro does not automatically result in rise of democracy in Venezuela. The opposition party has refused to participate in US backed talks stating that the government led by interim President Delcy Rodriguez has not displayed clarity regarding the timeline for holding free and fair elections in the country. So the political process in Venezuela is still fragile and while the Venezuelans were happy that Maduro was gone, they are unlikely to want their country being run by a foreign power and would certainly like a return to democratic self rule.
Alongside the United States and its oil companies another country emerged as an unlikely beneficiary of the US actions on January 3 2026 that led to Maduro’s ouster. That was India. New Delhi is no geopolitical competitor of Washington. It does not seek to overthrow governments in Latin America. Neither does it have any ideological projections in that continent. Its primary objective is to secure cheap energy, diversification of its energy sources and preserving strategic autonomy. Over the last eight months India has not only emerged as the second biggest importer of Venezuelan crude but has also invested in san christobal and Carabobo oil blocks. So India is not just a buyer but also an investor in Venezuela.
The United States welcomes Indian purchases as it helps monetising Venezuelan crude without America having to absorb all the outflow. New Delhi’s presence helps Washington counter Beijing in this high stakes battle to dominate Venezuelan oil markets. For Venezuela,India provides a non western alternative that is not Russia or China. It’s enables it to diversify her oil exports thus exercising greater autonomy and avoid dependency on only one external power.
Maduro’s ouster has reduced China’s influence in the country but Beijing has not lost its position in Venezuela completely. It has huge financial exposure in the Venezuelan oil sector as its relation with Venezuela was fundamentally economic in nature. China was Venezuela’s top oil customer during the Maduro period. Since his ouster that position has been toppled. The US has successfully inserted itself into controlling the mechanism that governs Venezuelan oil exports. China however has not sacrificed its relationship with Carcass despite Maduro’s ouster. It has treated his downfall as a mere setback and this is evident from the recent economic aid that Beijing provided Venezuela after the two devastating earthquakes that shook the country in June this year. For its part , Venezuela too has maintained her contacts with Beijing and would like to play US , China and India against each other thus increase her bargaining position.
The biggest loser from Maduro’s ouster has been Russia whose relationship with Carcass was largely geopolitical unlike Beijing. Venezuela provided Russia with a symbolic great power presence in American backyard. The Russia-Venezuela relations were largely about diplomatic support,arms sales,intelligence links and military exercises. All this depended on Maduro and his capture ruptured these links substantially. As Russian economy and resources were stretched in Ukraine, Moscow could do very little about American actions in Venezuela. Neither can it match the US financially in reconstruction of Venezuelan oil industry. In fact the increasing Venezuelan oil exports is a hindrance to Moscow as any increase in global oil supply has downward pressure on oil prices and hydrocarbons are primary source of income for Russia.
Like Russia both Cuba and Iran too lost their key patron in Latin America and thus their position in the Caribbean got weaker.
As International oil companies like Shell, Chevron, Repsol and BP among others continue to invest billions in Venezuela,the US must look to build the entire oil machine that encompasses extraction,refining,processing,storage and shipping. Simultaneously it must not lose moral legitimacy among Venezuelans. For decades the authoritarian governments from Chavez to Maduro had painted the United States as the villain responsible for the suffering of Venezuelan people. The ouster of Maduro by Washington led to the US becoming the dominant external power in the country. This makes it difficult for new government to maintain the narrative of previous governments that portrayed the US as adversary.
The US has won the first battle by overthrowing Maduro and establishing overwhelmingly control over Venezuela’s oil economy. But the second battle, and perhaps the most consequential one, that is to bring both economic and political transformation in that country, has just begun.
