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Once a largest contiguous land empire in the world and second largest empire ever in the history of mankind,Mongolia today is just a shadow of its former self. And that too a shadow caught between a Bear hugging Russia to its north and fire breathing Chinese Dragon to its south. Geographically the map can’t get worse for the Mongols who barely managed to escape being annexed by China but ended up being a Russian satellite during the Cold War. As the saying goes, Ulaanbaatar is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
The end of Cold War did provide some breathing space for Mongolia to emerge out of Moscow’s embrace and it was quick to espouse a third neighbour policy. Mongolia is seeking to reduce dependence on its two immediate neighbours,China and Russia, by engaging with alternate partners be it Japan, EU or Washington. However even the Mongols are not able to overcome the constraints imposed on them by geography.
Mongolia has abundant natural riches in form of oil, gas, nickel, tungsten, copper and phosphate. This has made it an attractive destination for Chinese investments as Beijing has an insatiable appetite for energy and minerals required for its ever expanding economy.But it’s a one way trade. China is the largest trading partner of Mongolia importing raw materials and exporting finished products thus making Mongolian economy overtly dependent on pulls and pressures from Beijing. Closure of check points through which goods pass between the two countries by Beijing can bring the Mongolian economy to a standstill. Ulaanbaatar is therefore very apprehensive of antagonising China especially on issues sensitive to China like the Dalai Lama or Taiwan.
To protect itself from being overwhelmed by China the way Tibet, Xianjiang and Inner Mongolia were, Ulaanbaatar has mutual defence agreement with Russia which ensures it protection against any Chinese aggression. But again that only makes it overtly reliant on Moscow for its defences. While being economically dependent on China, Ulaanbaatar is militarily dependent on Russia. Hence the need for a third neighbour.
Apart from Japan, The EU or US another rising power is seeking to expand ties with Mongolia. That is India. The current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Ulaanbaatar in 2015 becoming the first Indian Prime Minister to do so. New Delhi has expanded defence and security cooperation with Mongolia and conducts bilateral and multilateral military exercises with the Mongolian army. India and Mongolia share historical and civilisational ties compounded by Buddhist religion which spread from India to Tibet, China and finally Mongolia.
New Delhi wishes to draw upon these civilisational linkages and develop closer relations with Ulaanbaatar. Mongolia can form a crucial part of India’s “ Look North” policy as well as its “Act East” approach. It can provide New Delhi with a foothold in China’s northern backyard and also open up potential investment opportunities for Indian companies in Mongolia’s mining sector. For Mongolia, India provides an Asian option that is neither China nor Russia.
Looking forward Mongolia can take a leaf out of the play book of Central Asian countries who too are landlocked and largely stuck between Russia and China Yet they have successfully pursued a “ Multi Vector Policy” by playing the Bear and Dragon off each other. Ulaanbaatar can do the same. And partnership with India can come in handy.
While the tyranny of geography will continue to shape Mongolia’s journey it needs to not determine its destiny. As Ulaanbaatar continues to deepen economic and military cooperation with external powers it will do well to remember that being landlocked does not make you mind locked.
